Are you married to a man who's obsessed with AI? If i had to listen to another minute of my husband talking about Claude Code, I might have actually died. It was 11 pm in Berkeley, California, where I was home alone with our 10-month-old daughter, and 2 am in Cambridge, Massachusetts, where he was visiting for his newish job in AI. "JUST LOOK AT THIS!" he shouted. The FaceTime camera zoomed toward a laptop sitting on a hotel bed. I still had to take the dog out. "ARE YOU LOOKING?" he shouted again. I was looking at our real baby. There are two babies in this household now: the small human one and the large language model.

In this work, we consider the problem of matrix sensing over graphs (MSoG). As a general case of matrix completion and matrix sensing problems, the MSoG problem has not been analyzed in the literature and the existing results cannot be directly applied to the MSoG problem. This work provides the first theoretical results on the optimization landscape of the MSoG problem. More specifically, we propose a new condition, named the Ω-RIP condition, to characterize the optimization complexity of the problem. In addition, with an improved regularizer of the incoherence, we prove that the strict saddle property holds for the MSoG problem with high probability under the incoherence condition and the Ω-RIP condition, which guarantees the polynomial-time global convergence of saddleavoiding methods. Compared with state-of-the-art results, the bounds in this work are tight up to a constant. Besides the theoretical guarantees, we numerically illustrate the close relation between the Ω-RIP condition and the optimization complexity.

Multi-agent behavior modeling and trajectory forecasting are crucial for the safe navigation of autonomous agents in interactive scenarios. Variational Autoencoder (VAE) has been widely applied in multi-agent interaction modeling to generate diverse behavior and learn a low-dimensional representation for interacting systems. However, existing literature did not formally discuss if a VAE-based model can properly encode interaction into its latent space. In this work, we argue that one of the typical formulations of VAEs in multi-agent modeling suffers from an issue we refer to as social posterior collapse, i.e., the model is prone to ignoring historical social context when predicting the future trajectory of an agent. It could cause significant prediction errors and poor generalization performance.

We study semisupervised mean estimation with a small labeled sample, a large unlabeled sample, and a black-box prediction model whose output may be miscalibrated. A standard approach in this setting is augmented inverse-probability weighting (AIPW) [Robins et al., 1994], which protects against prediction-model misspecification but can be inefficient when the prediction score is poorly aligned with the outcome scale. We introduce Calibrated Prediction-Powered Inference, which post-hoc calibrates the prediction score on the labeled sample before using it for semisupervised estimation. This simple step requires no retraining and can improve the original score both as a predictor of the outcome and as a regression adjustment for semisupervised inference. We study both linear and isotonic calibration. For isotonic calibration, we establish first-order optimality guarantees: isotonic post-processing can improve predictive accuracy and estimator efficiency relative to the original score and simpler post-processing rules, while no further post-processing of the fitted isotonic score yields additional first-order gains. For linear calibration, we show first-order equivalence to PPI++. We also clarify the relationship among existing estimators, showing that the original PPI estimator is a special case of AIPW and can be inefficient when the prediction model is accurate, while PPI++ is AIPW with empirical efficiency maximization [Rubin et al., 2008]. In simulations and real-data experiments, our calibrated estimators often outperform PPI and are competitive with, or outperform, AIPW and PPI++. We provide an accompanying Python package, ppi_aipw, at https://larsvanderlaan.github.io/ppi-aipw/.

Michael Dell and Susan Dell became the first donors to give more than $1 billion to the University of Texas at Austin, funding a massive AI-native hospital and research campus.

Predictions from machine learning algorithms can vary across random seeds, inducing instability in downstream debiased machine learning estimators. We formalize random seed stability via a concentration condition and prove that subbagging guarantees stability for any bounded-outcome regression algorithm. We introduce a new cross-fitting procedure, adaptive cross-bagging, which simultaneously eliminates seed dependence from both nuisance estimation and sample splitting in debiased machine learning. Numerical experiments confirm that the method achieves the targeted level of stability whereas alternatives do not. Our method incurs a small computational penalty relative to standard practice whereas alternative methods incur large penalties.

Conformal risk control (CRC) provides distribution-free guarantees for controlling the expected loss at a user-specified level. Existing theory typically assumes that the loss decreases monotonically with a tuning parameter that governs the size of the prediction set. However, this assumption is often violated in practice, where losses may behave non-monotonically due to competing objectives such as coverage and efficiency. In this paper, we study CRC under non-monotone loss functions when the tuning parameter is selected from a finite grid, a setting commonly arising in thresholding and discretized decision rules. Revisiting a known counterexample, we show that the validity of CRC without monotonicity depends critically on the relationship between the calibration sample size and the grid resolution. In particular, reliable risk control can still be achieved when the calibration sample is sufficiently large relative to the grid size. We establish a finite-sample guarantee for bounded losses over a grid of size $m$, showing that the excess risk above the target level $α$ scales on the order of $\sqrt{\log(m)/n}$, where $n$ is the calibration sample size. A matching lower bound demonstrates that this rate is minimax optimal. We also derive refined guarantees under additional structural conditions, including Lipschitz continuity and monotonicity, and extend the analysis to settings with distribution shift via importance weighting. Numerical experiments on synthetic multilabel classification and real object detection data illustrate the practical implications of non-monotonicity. Methods that explicitly account for finite-sample uncertainty achieve more stable risk control than approaches based on monotonicity transformations, while maintaining competitive prediction set sizes.

Synthetic augmentation is increasingly used to mitigate data scarcity in financial machine learning, yet its statistical role remains poorly understood. We formalize synthetic augmentation as a modification of the effective training distribution and show that it induces a structural bias--variance trade-off: while additional samples may reduce estimation error, they may also shift the population objective whenever the synthetic distribution deviates from regions relevant under evaluation. To isolate informational gains from mechanical sample-size effects, we introduce a size-matched null augmentation and a finite-sample, non-parametric block permutation test that remains valid under weak temporal dependence. We evaluate this framework in both controlled Markov-switching environments and real financial datasets, including high-frequency option trade data and a daily equity panel. Across generators spanning bootstrap, copula-based models, variational autoencoders, diffusion models, and TimeGAN, we vary augmentation ratio, model capacity, task type, regime rarity, and signal-to-noise. We show that synthetic augmentation is beneficial only in variance-dominant regimes, such as persistent volatility forecasting-while it deteriorates performance in bias-dominant settings, including near-efficient directional prediction. Rare-regime targeting can improve domain-specific metrics but may conflict with unconditional permutation inference. Our results provide a structural perspective on when synthetic data improves financial learning performance and when it induces persistent distributional distortion.

Diffusion models generate samples by iteratively querying learned score estimates. A rapidly growing literature focuses on accelerating sampling by minimizing the number of score evaluations, yet the information-theoretic limits of such acceleration remain unclear. In this work, we establish the first score query lower bounds for diffusion sampling. We prove that for $d$-dimensional distributions, given access to score estimates with polynomial accuracy $\varepsilon=d^{-O(1)}$ (in any $L^p$ sense), any sampling algorithm requires $\widetildeΩ(\sqrt{d})$ adaptive score queries. In particular, our proof shows that any sampler must search over $\widetildeΩ(\sqrt{d})$ distinct noise levels, providing a formal explanation for why multiscale noise schedules are necessary in practice.

We initiate the study of language generation in the limit, a model recently introduced by Kleinberg and Mullainathan [KM24], under the constraint of differential privacy. We consider the continual release model, where a generator must eventually output a stream of valid strings while protecting the privacy of the entire input sequence. Our first main result is that for countable collections of languages, privacy comes at no qualitative cost: we provide an $\varepsilon$-differentially-private algorithm that generates in the limit from any countable collection. This stands in contrast to many learning settings where privacy renders learnability impossible. However, privacy does impose a quantitative cost: there are finite collections of size $k$ for which uniform private generation requires $Ω(k/\varepsilon)$ samples, whereas just one sample suffices non-privately. We then turn to the harder problem of language identification in the limit. Here, we show that privacy creates fundamental barriers. We prove that no $\varepsilon$-DP algorithm can identify a collection containing two languages with an infinite intersection and a finite set difference, a condition far stronger than the classical non-private characterization of identification. Next, we turn to the stochastic setting where the sample strings are sampled i.i.d. from a distribution (instead of being generated by an adversary). Here, we show that private identification is possible if and only if the collection is identifiable in the adversarial model. Together, our results establish new dimensions along which generation and identification differ and, for identification, a separation between adversarial and stochastic settings induced by privacy constraints.